Sunday, April 19, 2015

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Muslims Worldwide to Nearly Equal Christians by 2050

Christianity will remain the world's largest religious group in the coming decades, but Islam will grow faster than any other major religion — and if current trends continue, Muslims will nearly equal the number of Christians by 2050.

That's one projection in a report from the Pew Research Center, which also predicts that atheists, agnostics, and others who are not affiliated with any religion will decline as a percentage of the global population, while increasing in the United States.

Christians numbered 2.17 billion in 2010 and Pew projects there will be 2.91 billion Christians in 2050.

During that period, Muslims will rise from 1.6 billion to 2.76 billion.

Hindus will increase from 1.03 billion to 1.38 billion by 2050, Buddhists will remain at 0.49 billion, and the unaffiliated population will rise from 1.13 billion to 1.23 billion.

As a percentage of the global population, Christians will remain at 31.4 percent (where they are today) in 2050, while Muslims will increase from 23.2 percent to 29.7 percent.

Muslims, a comparatively young population with high fertility rates, are the only major religion projected by Pew to increase faster than the world's population as a whole, which is expected to rise by 35 percent. The Muslim population will rise by 73 percent, and Christians by 35 percent.

Adherents of various folk religions, including African traditional religions, Chinese folk religions, and Native American religions, are projected to increase by 11 percent, from 405 million today to 450 million in 2050.

Jews, who numbered 13.8 million in 2010, will increase to 16 million by 2050.

All other religions combined, including Baha'is, Sikhs, Jains, Taoists, and smaller faiths, will increase 6 percent, from 58 million to more than 61 million.

While the unaffiliated population is projected to rise to 1.2 billion by 2050, its percentage of the global population will drop from 16 percent to 13 percent as a result of faster growth in the global population.

But in the United States, the unaffiliated population is expected to rise from around 16 percent in 2010 to 26 percent in 2050.

Two factors largely determine the projected changes in religious populations around the world: fertility rates and age distribution.

The fertility rate among Muslims from 2010 to 2015 was 3.1 children per woman, the highest for any religion. For Christians, it was 2.7, and for the world at large, 2.5.

As for age distribution, 34 percent of Muslims are under age 15, compared to 27 percent for Christians and 27 percent for the world at large. Just 7 percent of Muslims are ages 60 and over, half the percentage of Christians.

Looking beyond 2050, Pew projects that by the year 2070, Muslims will outnumber Christians, comprising 34.9 percent of global population to Christians' 33.8 percent.

Other disclosures in the Pew report include:

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