Moody's Investors' Service rates seven countries Caa1 or worse, several tiers lower than Ba1, which still carries a significant credit risk. These countries are approaching or have narrowly escaped bankruptcy. Ukraine is rated Ca, which is currently the lowest credit rating of any country reviewed by Moody's.
All seven national economies instill relatively little confidence among investors. However, Jamaica's credit rating was upgraded by Moody's this year, and Argentina's and
A country's history of fiscal responsibility, including past defaults, and current compliance with IMF debt repayment plans, are major contributors to Moody's evaluations.
Extremely high debt levels, which while not always a feature of unhealthy economies, can also contribute to a country's poor credit rating. The debt of four of the seven countries was equal to more than 75% of GDP. In Jamaica and Greece, debt was well over 100% of GDP.
Political conflicts have also weakened some of these economies, which in turn has introduced more uncertainty and increased risk. Ukraine's conflict with Russia over its annexation of
Borrowing funds in the international bond market is often far more costly for countries with poor credit ratings. Investors require greater returns on what they perceive to be riskier investments and charge higher interest rates as a result. For example, a 10-year U.S. Treasury Note has an annual yield of just 2.16%. By contrast, a comparable bond recently issued by Jamaica pays out 6.44% a year. Yields on 10-year Greek government bonds reached 29% in early 2012, just before the country defaulted.
Based on credit ratings provided by
These are the 7 countries at risk of default.
7.
> Moody's credit rating: Caa1
> Moody's outlook: Negative
> 2015 Gov't debt (pct. of GDP): 39.6%
> 2015 GDP per capita
Considered by many to be the last dictator in Europe, President
Like several other
Moody's in April downgraded Belarus's sovereign debt rating to Caa1 from B3 — Belarus is one of only seven countries with a credit rating worse than B. Ratings C and worse are associated with relatively high levels of uncertainty, and creditors can expect a 90% to 95% recovery rate — the expected percentage of principal and interest returned to lenders — in countries with Caa1 ratings.
MORE: The happiest countries in the world
6. Argentina
> Moody's credit rating: Caa1
> Moody's outlook: Negative
> 2015 Gov't debt (pct. of GDP): 49.5%
> 2015 GDP per capita (PPP): $22,459
Argentina's current fiscal woes can be tied back to the late-1980s. In 1989, The New York Times reported that inflation in the South American country was estimated at an annual rate of 12,000%. In an attempt to tame the country's hyperinflation, the government tied its currency, the peso, to the U.S. dollar. While the peg had the desired effect and attracted foreign capital, it also hindered the Argentinian government's ability to counteract currency appreciations that made its exports more expensive relative to the rest of the world. Rather than abandon the peg, Argentina cut wages, which helped tame inflation but also drove unemployment up and tax receipts down. In 2001, Argentina defaulted on roughly $100 billion worth of debt.
While most of the nation's bondholders at the time agreed to debt restructuring deals, a few investors refused. After a U.S. court ruled in 2012 that Argentina could not pay its current bondholders without paying the holdouts as well, the country was forced to default in August, 2014. With elections this October, many presidential candidates are outlining their plans to revitalize Argentina's economy by tightening monetary and fiscal policy as well as looking to the international community to finance its debt.
5. Jamaica
> Moody's credit rating: Caa2
> Moody's outlook: Positive
> 2015 Gov't debt (pct. of GDP): 132.8%
> 2015 GDP per capita (PPP): $8,784
While Jamaica's credit rating of Caa2 is among the worst, it is a recent upgrade from a Caa3 rating. Moody's also upgraded the country's outlook to positive in May. No other country with such a poor rating has a positive outlook. Jamaica recently simplified its tax return filings, reformed tax incentives, and implemented a minimum business tax. According to Moody's, the improved business climate supports private investment and confidence in the economy.
Still, Jamaica's consistently high debt burden, coupled with high interest rates, have weakened the credit rating. Sovereign debt remained above 140% of GDP each year from 2009 through 2014, when it was third highest compared to other countries. Government debt fell slightly this year to an estimated 133% of GDP. However, this was still higher than all but three other countries.
4. Belize
> Moody's credit rating: Caa2
> Moody's outlook: Stable
> 2015 Gov't debt (pct. of GDP): 75.7%
> 2015 GDP per capita (PPP): $8,321
A small country in
3.
> Moody's credit rating: Caa3
> Moody's outlook: Stable
> 2015 Gov't debt (pct. of GDP): 39.6%
> 2015 GDP per capita (PPP): $16,346
Between September 2014 and January 2015, all three major credit rating companies downgraded Venezuela's credit. Moody's cited plummeting fuel prices as the primary factor in the downgrade. Nearly 94% of Venezuela's export earnings come from oil. Consequently, the country's risk of default increases substantially as fuel prices drop. Crude oil went from an average of $88.42 a barrel throughout 2014 to a mere $54.03 a barrel in December of 2014. Moody's predicts that Venezuela's account balance will shift from a 2% surplus of GDP in 2014 to a deficit of 2% of GDP in 2015. Despite the series of downgrades, Central Bank President
MORE: Countries spending the most on war
2. Greece
> Moody's credit rating: Caa3
> Moody's outlook: Rating Under Review> 2015 Gov't debt (pct. of GDP): 172.7%
> 2015 GDP per capita (PPP): $26,773
Greece was among the countries hardest-hit by the 2008 global financial crisis, and the country eventually received several large bailouts totalling 240 billion euros. Greece defaulted on $138 billion of its debt in 2012, the largest sovereign default ever recorded.
This January, Greece once again returned to the international spotlight after Greek voters elected the left-wing party
MORE: The healthiest countries in the world
1. Ukraine
> Moody's credit rating: Ca
> Moody's outlook: Negative
> 2015 Gov't debt (pct. of GDP): 94.1%
> 2015 GDP per capita (PPP): $8,278
Ukraine's conflict with Russia over its annexation of Crimea continues to fuel the country's financial problems. While the IMF approved Ukraine's debt restructuring plan in March, Ukraine has the worst credit rating of any country reviewed, downgraded this year from Caa3 to Ca, the second lowest possible level. Creditors can expect a 35% to 65% recovery rate on loans issued by the country. According to Moody's, "The likelihood of a distressed exchange, and hence a default on government debt taking place, is virtually 100%."
The same day that Moody's issued the downgrade, the
24/7 Wall St. is a USA TODAY content partner offering financial news and commentary. Its content is produced independently of USA TODAY
No comments:
Post a Comment